The FOMCwas one of the biggest event that I use to trace continuously while trading commodities futures. The event
held yesterday and the minutes released Wednesday cover the July 31-Aug. 1 policy meeting. The Fed releases the minutes of its private discussions three weeks after each meeting. The policy committee will next meet Sept. 12-13.
Early reaction in the stock and bond markets was positive but muted. The price of gold, which traders sometimes buy as a hedge against inflation, jumped about $10 an ounce, to $1,650, its highest point since early May.
The minutes of the July 31-Aug. 1 meeting don’t say what step would most likely be taken. The boldest move would be to launch a new program of bond buying to try to lower long-term interest rates to encourage more borrowing and spending.
The minutes show many officials favored pushing the timetable for any increase in record-low short-term rates beyond the Fed’s current target of late 2014 at the earliest. It is possible that the target will be extended to mid-2015. The minutes said Fed officials agreed to defer any action on extending the timetable until their next meeting in September.
After its August meeting, the Fed announced no changes in its policies. But in a statement afterward, it appeared to signal a growing willingness to take further steps to boost the economy if it doesn’t improve. The Fed noted that growth had slowed in the first half of the year. In particular, it pointed to lackluster job growth and consumer spending.
The Fed has already tried to drive down long-term rates by buying more than $2 trillion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. The goal has been for those lower rates to help boost spending, hiring and economic growth.
The Fed needs to put off any major new bond-purchase program so it would have something in reserve in case the economy goes off a “fiscal cliff” at the end of the year. That’s when tax increases and deep spending cuts will take effect unless Congress reaches a budget agreement.
On Wednesday, the Congressional Budget Office warned that if Congress fails to act, the fiscal cliff would probably tip the U.S. economy into a recession next year. The CBO estimated that the economy would shrink 0.5 percent in 2013- a bleaker picture than it sketched earlier this year. Unemployment would rise to around 9 percent by late next year as a result of the spending cuts and tax increases.
The economy grew at a lackluster annual rate of 1.5 percent in the July-September – even slower than the 2 percent growth rate turned in from January through March. Many economists think growth in the second half of this year will remain around 2 percent. If US can attain the growth of 2.5% it will be the fastest developed economy to grow.