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Tag Archive: BEAR MARKET


It’s not mandatory that all good investors are good writers and visa viz that all good finance writers are good investors. It’s the experience of the people who is good or bad that counts . Here again some of the best remarks from Peter Lynch :

  1. When the operas outnumber the football games three to zero, you know there is something wrong with your life.
  2. Gentleman who prefers bonds don’t know what they are missing.
  3. Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
  4. You can’t see the future through a rear view mirror
  5. There’s no point paying Yo-Yo Ma to play a radio.
  6. As long as you’re picking a fund, you might as well pick a good one.
  7. The extravagance of any corporate office is directly proportional to management’s reluctance to reward the shareholders.
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On an average the Indian market has given a 19% return in the last financial year that is the 3rd highest return after Egypt & Brazil who gave the better returns. The underlying is how many made the money because the markets where volatile , ruthless and driven by crisis over the year.

Wondering whether the 20 golden rules holds true for today’s market scenario :

  1. Your investor’s edge is not something you get from Dalal/Wall Street experts. It’s something you already have. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.
  2. Over the past 3 decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.
  3. Often there is no correlation b/w success of a company’s operations and the success of its stock over a few months or even years. In the long-term there is 100% correlation b/w the success of the company and the success of the stock. This disparity is the key to making money: it pays to be patient, and to own successful companies.
  4. You have to know what you own, and why you own it. “This baby is a clinch to go up!” dosen’t count.
  5. Long shots almost always miss the mark

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Markets & The Emotions :-

Greed is good !! well that’s the tag line on the wall street but how much that is more dependent on your emotion.In the past I did some stories on it and here is great work by Edward zones on the human emotions  and market cycle..

International Swaps and Derivatives Association is the body corporate to make over the counter (OTC) derivatives market safe and efficient.

It has 815 members from 58 countries including global, international and regional banks, asset managers, energy and commodities firms, government and supranational entities, insurers and diversified financial institutions, corporations, law firms, exchanges, clearinghouse and other service providers.

The Key areas of ISDA are
* Reducing counterparty risk
* Increasing the Transparency
* Improve the OTC operational infrastructure.

The details are provided on the ISDA Brochure

Recently ISDA came under criticism on its decision that based on current evidence the Greek bailout would not prompt payments on the (CDS)credit default swaps. View full article »

Yesterday Merkel quoted all EURO countries must contribute to fight the crisis, seems too bad all but Germany are broke, she also said that European nations will need to cede more power to EU and back to feudalism.Now the ball is in the Greece court.

A new proposal by ECB was that, ECB would tender its bonds in to Greek debt exchange and would help greek to achieve to save approx 11 billion Euros. The condition holds true is that ECB has approx 50 billion euro of Greek bonds, so that will allow Greece to have 39 billion euro of debt instead of 50 billion euro, saving approximately 11 billion euros.
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* Most of Facebook 800 million users are women.Its board of directors are all men

* The Biggest buzz Facebook is great.But $100 billion great?

* Facebook’s ripple effect: Zynga spikes 17%

*Getting back to the gold standard gold standard

* Foreign telecom may quit India the attractive market is not so attractive now

Elevator gossips :-

* What most people would call the greatest night of their lives, I call just another Friday.
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This week is going to be fun; With Greece at the end of a gun; Will they resist? And get really pissed? Please wake me up when it’s done….

In the mean time during the weekend A “source in Berlin said Germany’s proposal was aimed not just at Greece but also at other struggling euro zone members”. German Economy Minister Demands Surrender Of Greek Budget Policy, First Of Many Such requests.Roesler statement means Germany will next demand Portuguese fiscal policy hand over. Then Spanish. Then Italian ????

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http://sandyyadav.comThe dark clouds are hanging over Europe, and there are rumors that Greece may Exit Euro. Yesterday Fitch the rating agency dented and downgrades Spain and Italy each by two notches, Belgium by one. Ireland affirmed at BBB+. Luck of the Irish! it was like a bomb but it was already discounted by the market  and market not surprised by Fitch downgrades Euro remained higher against Dollar even after downgrades.

But Fitch was not a news maker, it was non other than Facebook raised the curtains which is ready all set for IPO filing, here is the big estimate whether market will discount this or not.They say $100B now… it will bump up to $115B by time of IPO… then $130B on first day out….
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When Greece is trying to reach a deal with private sector creditors that would pave the way for additional bailout funding. S&P confirming even after the deal Greece “in all likelihood” qualify as a default.

IMF warned yesterday and reduced its forecast growth for the world 2012 amid concerns with the European Crisis and the IMF chairman confirmed that the debt crisis in Europe is the biggest threat,  Christine Lagarde also pointed to the challenges facing the U.S. economy.

Yesterday the talks fall apart and Greece is stuck with Troika (EU/ECB/IMF) on the one hand and Bondholders on the other.So here Greece acting as an intermediary( reference entity) where the Bond holders demanding 4% coupon on the restructured debt that is not acceptable by the Troika.

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I am wondering a day in the Indian Financial media when Reliance does not appear in the news. More so since last year when the cash reserve has piled up.

In fact too much cash reserve lead to lot of speculations and rumors spread that RIL is set for making a hostile bid to acquire Valero Energy, the world’s largest oil refinery in 2011. In fact the other rumor was that RIL in takes with beleaguered Kingfisher airline.

Now today the First Post  break the story that “Overloaded with cash, Mukesh announces RIL share buyback”.

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