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Tag Archive: BETA


I am a big fan of Traders Guns and Money the book written by Satyajit Das, the definitions Knowns and Unknowns revealed by him is the classic work.  The reality is always to make sure that you have a sheat when the music in this game of musical chairs for high stakes stops ( referring to the examples for the  crisis happened in the past). As a result of it some interesting statements the management of the firms make but the intensity is something to thought about :-

Statement: As a Leading dealer with a global platform, we are the major player in the market.

  • Translation: We have spent a fortune to build this business and are now prepared to spend millions more subsidizing your requirements.

Statement: We have one of the most talented teams in this space.

  • Translation: Our staff are vastly overpaid and on huge guaranteed bonuses.

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Markets & The Emotions :-

Greed is good !! well that’s the tag line on the wall street but how much that is more dependent on your emotion.In the past I did some stories on it and here is great work by Edward zones on the human emotions  and market cycle..

As MCX hit the roof top in the IPO market and subscribed 54 times on robust demand, was wondering how many of the investor bother to see that it was graded 5 star from the CRISIL. Here is a research proposal that could be worked upon on the IPO grading :-

On the 30th April 2007 SEBI decided to make grading of all IPOs mandatory. Grading makes additional information available for the investors, in the sense that it is supposedly an objective opinion of a credit rating agency arrived at after analyzing business and financial prospects, management quality and corporate governance practices etc of the issuer. Grades represent relative assessment of the fundamentals of the issue compared to other listed equity securities. Now that the IPO grading is about to complete one year, we seek to assess its impact on the primary market of equity shares.

Intuitively, we feel that grading should have direct effect on subscription statistics. Issues with grading of 3 or below should attract less subscription and issues of grading 4 or 5 should attract more subscription. It means that by and large the variability in subscriptions of different issues (i.e. if an issue gets p times subscribed, the variability in p) should rise after introduction of grading. If investors are risk avers, and if they trust grading, more monies should go to better graded issues. View full article »

Continuing where I left in my last post Face book all set to fire . As on Feb 1st the social network confirmed its plans for an Initial Public Offerings (IPO) confirming its valuations between $75 billion and $100 billion. The valuation reflect an extraordinary belief that a start-up hardly 8-year-old firm is more valuable than Boeing , the world largest airraftmaker. Are they nuts ??

$100 Billion? 100:1 PE ratio?
I like Facebook but hard to imagine an upside there.
$100B is the same value as Verizon, Cisco, Pepsi or McDonald’s.

Would like to share three things that leaped out at me from Facebook’s financial filing. They involve marketing, hypocrisy and arrogance — in other words, standard Wall Street fair.

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http://sandyyadav.comThe dark clouds are hanging over Europe, and there are rumors that Greece may Exit Euro. Yesterday Fitch the rating agency dented and downgrades Spain and Italy each by two notches, Belgium by one. Ireland affirmed at BBB+. Luck of the Irish! it was like a bomb but it was already discounted by the market  and market not surprised by Fitch downgrades Euro remained higher against Dollar even after downgrades.

But Fitch was not a news maker, it was non other than Facebook raised the curtains which is ready all set for IPO filing, here is the big estimate whether market will discount this or not.They say $100B now… it will bump up to $115B by time of IPO… then $130B on first day out….
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As promised with the continuation of Investor beware caveat emptor series http://wp.me/pc3rd-hz today the by laws are defined how to deal with the brokers and sub brokers.

Before making any investing call in the financial market its necessary to ensure :-

  1. Deal only with SEBI registered intermediaries.
  2. Ensure that the intermediary has a valid registration certificate.
  3. Ensure that the intermediary is permitted to transact in the market.
  4. State clearly who will be placing orders on your behalf
  5. Insist on client registration form to be signed by the intermediary before commencing operations.
  6. Enter into an agreement with your broker or sub-broker setting out terms and conditions clearly.
  7.  Insist on contract note/ confirmation memo for trades done each day
  8.  Insist on bill for every settlement.
  9.  Ensure that broker’s name, trade time and number, transaction price and brokerage are shown distinctly on the contract note.
  10.  Insist on periodical statement of accounts.
  11.  Issue cheques/drafts in trade name of the intermediary only.
  12.  Ensure receipt of payment/ deliveries within 48 hours of payout
  13.  In case of disputes, file written complaint to intermediary/ Stock Exchange/SEBI within a reasonable time. ( Don’t know how many really do this ).
  14.  In case of sub-broker disputes, inform the main broker about the dispute within 6 months.
  15.  Familiarize yourself with the rules, regulations and circulars issued by stock exchanges/SEBI before carrying out any transaction

Just wondering in real how much time the real scenario holds true rather investor pron to become easy targets and they :-
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1)      Paris Pasu http://wp.me/pc3rd-f

2)      RPL METHODOLOGY TO LURE THE RETAIL INVESTOR http://wp.me/pc3rd-i

3)      HDFC all set to buy CBOP http://wp.me/pc3rd-k

4)      Typical spinoff situation http://wp.me/pc3rd-l

5)      MUTUAL FUNDS SURVEY BY BUSINESSWORLD http://wp.me/pc3rd-m

6)      INDIA : THE EMERGING GIANT a book by Arvind Panagariya’s http://wp.me/pc3rd-n

7)      Process of passing the Budget http://wp.me/pc3rd-o

8)      THE ECONOMIC SURVEY 2007-08 http://wp.me/pc3rd-p

9)      Things Which appears First to me http://wp.me/pc3rd-q

10)   ICICI overseas losses mount to $264m credit exposure…http://wp.me/pc3rd-v

11)   CRITIQUE FOR THE BUDGET 2008-09 http://wp.me/pc3rd-z

12)   WHAT TO READ IN AN OFFER DOCUMENT ?? http://wp.me/pc3rd-A

13)   Sensex down 27.5% ..just in 2 months time frame http://wp.me/pc3rd-B

14)   YET AGAIN! FED CUT RATE BY 0.75%, Mayhem in markets http://wp.me/pc3rd-C

15)   CAT Bonds and CAT Swaps http://wp.me/pc3rd-D

2012 The Year to be

The countdown has begun and the plane is ready for the take off Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy year!

Recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China. Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the advanced economies slow). Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the euro zone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.

The credit crunch at the euro zone and the recession seems to be certain as the problems of sovereign debts, fiscal austerity doesn’t seems to be solved soon.

US is running at Snail’s pace after the subprime crisis household sector deleveraging , weak job creation , incomes are stagnant).

Meanwhile, flaws in China’s growth model are becoming obvious. Falling property prices are starting a chain reaction that will have a negative effect on developers, investment, and government revenue. The construction boom is starting to stall, just as net exports have become a drag on growth, owing to weakening US and especially euro zone demand. Having sought to cool the property market by reining in runaway prices, Chinese leaders will be hard put to restart growth.

But this adjustment of relative prices via currency movements is stalled, because surplus countries are resisting exchange-rate appreciation in favor of imposing recessionary deflation on deficit countries. The ensuing currency battles are being fought on several fronts: foreign-exchange intervention, quantitative easing, and capital controls on inflows. And, with global growth weakening further in 2012, those battles could escalate into trade wars.

Finally, policymakers are running out of options. Currency devaluation is a zero-sum game, because not all countries can depreciate and improve net exports at the same time. Monetary policy will be eased as inflation becomes a non-issue in advanced economies (and a lesser issue in emerging markets). But monetary policy is increasingly ineffective in advanced economies, where the problems stem from insolvency – and thus creditworthiness – rather than liquidity.

The ECB did agree to lend money on extended terms to European banks, and has relaxed its collateral rules. It was a grand bargain postulated before last week summit – that the euro zone governments would agree a fiscal pact in return for the ECB buying lots of government bonds – hasn’t quite happened.
The Euro zone leaders gave the hint that the banks can take that money from the ECB at 1% and invest the proceeds in government bonds, and earn a very nice yield premium along the way. This is a sort of back door QE, or perhaps bank door QE is the better name for it.
There are questions over it weather banks will take this risk, given that they might have to mark to market any losses on their government bond holdings. And there is no sign yet that this bargain is having much of an effect on bond yields.
One of my friend did the rhyming of the crisis :
Europa To Her Coy Central Banker
Had we but world enough, and time,
This coyness, Draghi, were no crime.
We would sit down and think which way
To walk, and pass our long loan’s day;
Thou by the Indian Ganges’ side
Shouldst Rupees find; I by the tide
Of Humber would complain. I would
beg you ten years before the Flood;
And you should, if you please, refuse
Till the conversion of the Jews.
My importunate debts should grow
Vaster than empires, and more slow.
A hundred years should go to praise
Thy laws, and on thy assets gaze;
Two hundred to adore each quest,
But thirty thousand to the rest;
An age at least to every part,
And the last age should show your heart.
For, Draghi, you deserve this state,
Nor would I seek at lower rate.
But at my back I always hear
Time’s winged chariot hurrying near;
And yonder all before us lie
Deserts of vast insolvency.
Thy glory shall no more be found,
Nor, in thy trash-stuffed vault, shall sound
My plaintive cries; harsh words shall try
That long preserv’d recusancy,
And your quaint honour turn to dust,
And into ashes all my trust.
Berlin’s a fine and wealthy place,
But none there Bagehot’s words embrace.
So, therefore, while a sanguine hue
Sits on thy brow like generous dew,
Let not a timid soul conspire,
To add thy voice to the German choir.
Now let us save us while we may;
And now, like half-starved birds of prey,
Rather at once our time devour,
Than languish in his slow-chapp’d power.
Let us roll all our strength, and all
Our greatness, up into one ball;
And drive our measures, leaving strife,
Thorough the iron gates of life.
Thus, though we cannot make our sun
Stand still, yet we will make him run.

When Goldman acquired 1% In Jan 2011 at the cost of $ 450 million and valued the business at $50 billion, they proved them again being a smart investor. http://wp.me/pc3rd-cS

(Although it’s not right to say that Goldman never make valuation mistakes (John Paulson for example), they have huge corpus to cut its losses. Others don’t have that option.

In the 11 months time when Bloomberg published the news Face book Inc. is considering raising about $10 billion in an initial public offering that would value the world’s largest social-networking site at more than $100 billion, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

So Face book $100 billion valuation would be twice than it was valued in Jan 2011 stands today as the firm will file the IPO by this year-end and plans to goes public in first quarter of 2012.

Would like to end with the sarcastic note:

To those who use the big story justification, everyone will be on a social network in the future, and you need to pay a premium to be part of the movement. Having heard variants of the big story before used to justify other bubbles (dot com, telecomm, PCs), I don’t buy this. I think the market may be right about the macro story but is being hopelessly over optimistic about the micro pieces. In other words, we may all be parts of social networks a decade from now, but can all of these social networking platforms (Facebook, Twitter, Groupon…) be profitable? My guess is that there will be a few big winners and lots of losers, before the final story is written. (Remember that the market was right in 1998 about dot-com retailing being the wave of the future but most dot-com retailers never made it through to nirvana. Amazon did and it is worth almost $ 80 billion, but it is the exception.)

How is this any different from the ridiculously overvalued “Groupon” which is in the midst of a spectacular collapse? The Nasdaq is going to continue to drop. IPOs cannot save it since the Euro-Stock Market correlation is at an all time high. The concept of an IPO does not trouble me, but the supposed “valuation” of Face Book is frankly comical.

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