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Tag Archive: GLOBALIZATION


I do not know why but somebody wanted me to define some basics on Yield spreads, that whether Yield spreads can judge the risk environment in an economy ?

Yield spreads are good tools to judge the risk environment in an economy a lower yield spread means that the issuer of debt is in a situation to demand loans at a lower spread above the yield of government security which in turn shows the presence of ample liquidity.

As far as economic growth is concerned a lower yield spread indicates greater amount of liquidity available for growth View full article »

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2012 The War of Currencies :-

The combined output of emerging-market economies now accounts for more than half of world GDP and energy consumption. The emerging countries also hold 70% of the world’s foreign-exchange reserves. As a result, rich countries no longer dominate either the global economy or the global economic-policy agenda. Emerging countries’ global integration, demand for resources, and huge capital inflows now determine rich countries’ economic performance – their inflation rates, employment levels, borrowing costs, and wages and profits.

Faster growth that lifts the living standards of hundreds of millions of people in poor countries boosts global demand and reins in inflation., Both should be a cause for celebration. Instead, many in the rich world are protesting as output and jobs shift to low-wage economies in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. And many in the developing world complain that rich countries’ trade barriers, agricultural subsidies, and monetary policies are blocking their progress.

Clearly, then, the shift in the balance of global economic power will give rise to a radical re-thinking of economic policy in both rich and emerging countries. ( Views from  Prof : Jeffrey Frankel)

2012 The Year to be

The countdown has begun and the plane is ready for the take off Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy year!

Recession in Europe, anemic growth at best in the United States, and a sharp slowdown in China and in most emerging-market economies. Asian economies are exposed to China. Latin America is exposed to lower commodity prices (as both China and the advanced economies slow). Central and Eastern Europe are exposed to the euro zone. And turmoil in the Middle East is causing serious economic risks – both there and elsewhere – as geopolitical risk remains high and thus high oil prices will constrain global growth.

The credit crunch at the euro zone and the recession seems to be certain as the problems of sovereign debts, fiscal austerity doesn’t seems to be solved soon.

US is running at Snail’s pace after the subprime crisis household sector deleveraging , weak job creation , incomes are stagnant).

Meanwhile, flaws in China’s growth model are becoming obvious. Falling property prices are starting a chain reaction that will have a negative effect on developers, investment, and government revenue. The construction boom is starting to stall, just as net exports have become a drag on growth, owing to weakening US and especially euro zone demand. Having sought to cool the property market by reining in runaway prices, Chinese leaders will be hard put to restart growth.

But this adjustment of relative prices via currency movements is stalled, because surplus countries are resisting exchange-rate appreciation in favor of imposing recessionary deflation on deficit countries. The ensuing currency battles are being fought on several fronts: foreign-exchange intervention, quantitative easing, and capital controls on inflows. And, with global growth weakening further in 2012, those battles could escalate into trade wars.

Finally, policymakers are running out of options. Currency devaluation is a zero-sum game, because not all countries can depreciate and improve net exports at the same time. Monetary policy will be eased as inflation becomes a non-issue in advanced economies (and a lesser issue in emerging markets). But monetary policy is increasingly ineffective in advanced economies, where the problems stem from insolvency – and thus creditworthiness – rather than liquidity.

The ECB did agree to lend money on extended terms to European banks, and has relaxed its collateral rules. It was a grand bargain postulated before last week summit – that the euro zone governments would agree a fiscal pact in return for the ECB buying lots of government bonds – hasn’t quite happened.
The Euro zone leaders gave the hint that the banks can take that money from the ECB at 1% and invest the proceeds in government bonds, and earn a very nice yield premium along the way. This is a sort of back door QE, or perhaps bank door QE is the better name for it.
There are questions over it weather banks will take this risk, given that they might have to mark to market any losses on their government bond holdings. And there is no sign yet that this bargain is having much of an effect on bond yields.
One of my friend did the rhyming of the crisis :
Europa To Her Coy Central Banker
Had we but world enough, and time,
This coyness, Draghi, were no crime.
We would sit down and think which way
To walk, and pass our long loan’s day;
Thou by the Indian Ganges’ side
Shouldst Rupees find; I by the tide
Of Humber would complain. I would
beg you ten years before the Flood;
And you should, if you please, refuse
Till the conversion of the Jews.
My importunate debts should grow
Vaster than empires, and more slow.
A hundred years should go to praise
Thy laws, and on thy assets gaze;
Two hundred to adore each quest,
But thirty thousand to the rest;
An age at least to every part,
And the last age should show your heart.
For, Draghi, you deserve this state,
Nor would I seek at lower rate.
But at my back I always hear
Time’s winged chariot hurrying near;
And yonder all before us lie
Deserts of vast insolvency.
Thy glory shall no more be found,
Nor, in thy trash-stuffed vault, shall sound
My plaintive cries; harsh words shall try
That long preserv’d recusancy,
And your quaint honour turn to dust,
And into ashes all my trust.
Berlin’s a fine and wealthy place,
But none there Bagehot’s words embrace.
So, therefore, while a sanguine hue
Sits on thy brow like generous dew,
Let not a timid soul conspire,
To add thy voice to the German choir.
Now let us save us while we may;
And now, like half-starved birds of prey,
Rather at once our time devour,
Than languish in his slow-chapp’d power.
Let us roll all our strength, and all
Our greatness, up into one ball;
And drive our measures, leaving strife,
Thorough the iron gates of life.
Thus, though we cannot make our sun
Stand still, yet we will make him run.

Food shopping in India is not a precious affair, even in Bandra a posh suburb in Mumbai. German cars and $100 highlights are common here, but you can’t see any super markets.

Less than a tenth of India $430 billion of annual retail sales takes place in organized retail comparing to the developed world.

The govt motives are benign, facing a wobbly rupee and high inflation it wants to show it is still capable of bold action to boost the business confidence.

Liberaliasation will lower food prices by cutting out middle man and the waste.

Perhaps a third of the crop rot on road side and on ware house before any one has a chance to smother them in species wolf them with Chapattis.

The arrival of Wal-Mart (WMT) Stores Inc. and Carrefour SA (CA) would have an invigorating effect like few events in the 20 years that Singh has been modernizing India’s economy. As finance minister in the early 1990s, he introduced free-market measures that cut red tape, removed caps on steel and cement makers and allowed overseas names like Ford Motor Co. to do business locally. These changes deserve as much credit for India’s 7 percent growth as anything.

A labyrinthine distribution system involves myriad middlemen and helps inflate prices in a nation where hundreds of millions live in, or on the cusp, of extreme poverty — the $1-a-day kind. Yes, this system employs millions, but at a very high cost.

India can’t turn back the clock on where the world economy finds itself. Opening the retail industry isn’t some out-of-the- blue act of economic radicals; it has been debated for 15 years now and is an essential part of India’s growth story in the long run.

Unfortunately the decision has been hold back by the government :(

Seems lyk  Singh’s Retail Retreat a ‘Nail in the Coffin’

Europe Europe Europe..

As per the remarks of Joseph Shumpeter great economist
“The monetary system of a people reflects everything that the nation wants, does suffer is “
The crisis in Europe is much more than the Euro. Simply because the sovereign bonds, share prices and banks swoon and global recession is knocking on the door.
The EURO will never be safe unless Europe answers some basic fundamental questions that it has been running from many years.
It seems like By the end of this week, indeed, the governments of all five countries in the PIIGS grouping (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) will have changed since the start of the crisis if, as expected, the ruling Socialists lose power in Spain. The prospects for economic reform in the peripheral European countries look a lot stronger than before.
Most of the Chief economist anticipating the A Spanish Or Italian Default Could Happen In A Few Short Days.
It seems Italian bonds are now worth muffin stumps and EcB  has turned out to be a Newman.
The only Silver lining is ECB
End of the Euro as we know it? Yes! End of the Euro-Project. Definitely NO! Until German heart is still beating, noone will give up until it stops including Poles . Poles already took Greek bank Polbank under their FDIC equivalent to help Greeks as well to protect its customers. So, not so fast dude!
 Rahm once said: ‘never let a crisis go to waste’! Let’s hope this one will not be wasted!

To begin the explanation just wanted to quote some of the financial baron’s views on CDS:

In 1993 George Akerlof Nobel prize-winning economist predicted that the next meltdown will be caused by the CDS.

In 2003 Investment legend Warren buffet called them as weapons of mass destruction.

Man behind the Subprime crisis Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan – betted big on them as cheerleaders !! now quote CDS are dangerous.

A leading paper news week described CDS, The monster that ate Wall –street.

The Guru of credit derivatives Satyajit Das quoted that CDS will not stabilize the economy rather could lead to destabilization

CDS contract are dangerous because they can be manipulated for mischief: buy a CDS, than naked short the credit to death. It’s all about the insurable interest which is never there as it is used for speculation. A derivative that amounts to an insurance contract with no insurable interest is bad. But do the speculators have insurable interest?  No never!!

The CDS contracts that caused the mess were just such contracts. The problem was not that they were “derivatives,” but what kind of derivatives they were.

I got the chance to grab the 81 page draft report of the internal group on the Introduction of Credit default swaps for corporate bonds. Basically CDS is a credit derivative that can be used to transfer credit risk from the investor exposed to the risk called protection buyer to an investor willing to take risk called protection seller.

For dealing in CDS both the counterparts specify a reference entity, reference obligation (mortgage, bonds,) notional amount, credit events. In India the internal group has favored launching of CDS only on corporate bonds.

As per the report the eligible participants are commercial banks, Primary dealers, NBFCs, (Insurance companies and Mutual funds notified and clarified by IRDA and SEBI)

In the Indian context the CDS could turn out to be hedging tool, but the market maker will be speculating on the product. Enormous amount of money will be deployed in making and marketing the prospectus so a huge commission is on the cards for the sales team.

The biggest risk involved with the CDS is that it can lead to systemic risk and could lead to contagion which will in fact derail the whole financial system. That we can infer from the Sub prime and the European crisis. (Nicely explained in the books: The Greatest Trade ever by Gregory Zuckerman;   The Big short by Michael Lewis)

Since the introduction of IDRs in 2000 under companies’ act of 1956, the much awaited maiden IDR draft red hearing prospectus (DRPH) of Standard charted PLC submitted for SEBI’s approval. One of the reason behind for the delay to have first IDR as the global players see India as a better destination for investment as of now; not as a market for raising money.  Stan Charted will be issuing 220,000,000 IDRs and hope to raise $750 million from Indian market.

■     In February 2004 Indian Depository Receipt rules framed by DCA under this Section

■     Under Rule 4(d) of the IDR Rules, SEBI has power to specify eligibility criteria for IDR issuers

■     Under Clause 9 to the Schedule to the IDR Rules, SEBI can specify any information to be included in the prospectus from time to time

■     Finally SEBI on April 3rd 2006 added Chapter VIA to its DIP Guidelines which deals with issue of IDRs

IDRs are financial instruments that allow foreign companies to mobilize funds from Indian markets, it helps in offering equity and getting listed on Indian stock exchanges, they are vice versa of Global Depository Receipts (GDR) and American Depository Receipts (ADR).

The concept of IDR works under the mentioned bullet points:

■     Foreign companies issue shares to an Indian Depository

■     Which would, in turn, issue Depository Receipts to investors in India

■     Depository Receipts would be listed on stock exchanges in India and would be freely transferable

■     Shares underlying the IDRs would be held by an Overseas Custodian, which authorizes the Indian Depository to issue the IDRs

■     Overseas Custodian to be a foreign bank having a place of business in India and needs approval from Ministry of Finance.

■     Indian Depository needs to be registered with SEBI

As it’s a maiden issue in the Indian financial market Stan charted has left no stone unturned and hired the army of Book running lead managers, syndicate members and legal advisers. To name a few UBS Securities India Private Limited, Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited, JM Financial Consultants Private Limited,DSP Merrill Lynch Limited, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited SBI Capital Markets Limited.

For more information the DRHP is a great read but it runs up to 800 pages. http://www.sebi.gov.in/dp/standchart.pdf

ARE THE BULLS REALLY BACK

The decoupling theory which was introduced by some one before the sub-prime crisis in 2008 was went for the toss, when the Indian economy also suffered by the global recession. Now the Indian markets are ending in green from the last week and showing consistency but the European and the US stock markets are not showing such a great chance of revival.Is the decoupling theory persisting ? or the common views of analysts saying that its a election rally in the Indian market.

Global events are directly linked to the economy each and every major news do discount the market today or tomorrow. Be it the G20 sub mitt or the major chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by the MNCs. The Indian markets are up and when a finance guy want to know why they are up no body has the answer for the rally. Analyst has given a name to it saying its a election rally. Being in the market I always have a appetite to know the reason behind rise and fall of the market.

My friends are ringing me up and asking me Is it the correct time to enter in to the market ? I told them there is no correct and no wrong time to enter in to the market , its the script which you are buying has more importance rather then going gungho about the market. I still believe that the Indian capital market are very much in efficient they could be moved up and down by cartelisation. In the end Its the retail individual who is the sufferer . I don’t know where will be market after the elections or in the coming 1 year. I only remember one thing said my professor that to enter in to the market the loss born by you is the fees charged by the market . In market no body lose money neither the other one gain, Its only the transfer of wealth from one individual to another.

 

The story of Satyam computers limited has now taken a new turn and it has been hit hard this time. The WORLD BANK on November 23rd barred Satyam from performing its business with them for a period of 8 years, one of the biggest punishments given by the World Bank after 2004. This is a direct question mark on the credibility of Satyam Computers Limited.

In the matter of 15 days Satyam computer again put on the task and the share prices has plunged down. Earlier the company was in the news because of the insane decision taken by the management to buy Maytas properties private limited and Maytas Infrastructure limited, both promoted by the Raju Son’s.

This was one of the unprecedented moves under the current circumstances where the real estate sector is toppling. The offer made by Satyam to buy these infrastructure companies was much more above the real estate sector giant Unitech, no chocolates for guessing the bid it was the personal interest of the management which came above the shareholders common interest.

The move was unethical and reverted back by the management, a software company diversifying into real estate is itself a question mark, because Software Company didn’t have a debt or very less debt into their balance sheet vice versa to a real-estate company.

In the process Mr Ramalingam Raju lost almost Rs 9630 crores value of the company, when the corporate governance is beginning to show its positive signs in India with quite good regulations the move has dampened the spirit and the shadow of India in the world.

Shouldn’t Mr Ramalingam Raju take the responsibility of what had happened and resign from his position, by showing his placidness. Other wise the institutional investor could exercise their rights.

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