Guest Post : By Green
When the going gets tough, the tough get buying. The tweaked version of that hard-worn phrase could be an accurate way of describing some of those shrewd investors who buy shares in a downturn in the hope or belief that they will bounce back. Great successes can be achieved in this way. However, what do you do when the markets are on an upturn as the global indexes have signaled for close to five years in a row? Even when the studious foresee a continued momentum, there is a natural trepidation that the glass ceiling may suddenly bounce that trajectory.
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Thanks to all the visitors who came and appreciated the maverick thoughts yesterday.I am sharing the links of articles that where displayed on the board for your convince :
Your thoughts feedback and remarks are most welcome .
I have quarried in the past that risk free rate for doing the valuation of equities and got some interesting answers, wanted to share here.
This is holistic view where an average of 10 year debt YTM of five lowest ratio of govt debt to GDP:
The 10yr Treasury is still a decent risk free rate, but the U.S.’s sovereign debt load will soon match Greece‘s. It may already exceed that level if you count the unfunded liabilities of entitlement programs. View full article »
CEO of the Saxo Bank Lars Seier Christensen express his opinion it was remarkable :-
The real problem is not Cyprus, it is the Euro.
After a few disturbing weeks, I would like to wrap up my comments on Cyprus and, hopefully, turn to other issues going forward. It is astonishing that a EUR 10 billion bailout can keep the world spellbound for so long. But then again, while the amount is not staggering, some of the implications are mind-blowing.
That a small economy can be destroyed over a weekend is in itself very scary. But Cyprus’s fate was basically sealed when the Troika revealed its first version of the bailout package. View full article »
Three months ago, Yanis Varoufakis explained Europe’s bogus growth pact and the papering over the cracks that was being done by the IMF and ECB, “The idea here is that, yet again, the Eurogroup-ECB-IMF alliance is not ready, politically, to reveal the truth to its various constituencies.” He was, obviously, correct. This weekend, in a brief BBC Radio interview (below), as Cyprus erupts and brings the European circus back into town, Varoufakis exclaims, “every bailout agreement, beginning with Greece’s in May 2010, seems less logical and more toxic than the previous one.”
In three minutes, the Greek economist illustrates how the leaders are laying waste to the supposed pillars upon which the European Union was founded. View full article »
What’s a credit event? It’s a difficult question. Dealbreaker is exercised on this, or more specifically on the issues with CDS protection holders getting paid on some unusual credit-event-like happenings:
- You buy CDS that is supposed to pay off if something goes wrong with the bonds.
- Something goes wrong with the bonds, insofar as they poof into some weird garbage-y thing or assortment of garbage-y things.
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Recently Jörg Bibow was interviewed have tried to put the points in English stating that Mario Draghi’s announcement promise of ECB support for government bond markets seems to have calmed fears of an imminent euro breakup, at least for the time being. That does not mean the euro crisis is over though. Not at all, as the underlying problems remain largely unresolved. Liquidity can buy time but it cannot solve the imbalances inside the euro area and related debt overhangs that are the deeper cause behind the euro crisis. It is important in this context that the ECB promise is for conditional support. View full article »
In financial markets, craziness creates opportunity. It affects only prices, not values. And one of the craziest afflictions I know of is our faith in our ability to see the future. Indeed, there isn’t even an appropriate opposite to the word ‘foresight’ in the English language. So I’m going to make one up. And rather than build a portfolio based on the pretence we have foresight, let’s explore some ideas for building one that is robust to our fore-blindness.
Here are some things I think are true:
I have always contagion on the negative terms as it has been evolving and spreading since the 2007.
Was observing the great Euro zone Yield convergence at Bloomberg from the FT dash-board -
…let’s not forget about one thing. We speak a lot about contagion when things go poorly, but I believe that there is also contagion, positive contagion, when things go well. And I think this is in play now. There is positive contagion. - Mario Draghi, ECB President
The Key Data Points
German 10-year Bund 5 bps higher; View full article »
As I write this post ..and think about mother India “In the nineteenth century, the central moral challenge was slavery. In the twentieth century, it was the battle against totalitarianism. The richest culture of the world where woman is equivalent to god only in books and temples …is suffering due ton Gender Insensitive Society, Ignorant Govt. Unfortunately the Culture of violence against women still exists ….
The Highs from the globe 2012 :
- The definitive discovery of the Higgs boson particle that confirms our capacity to grasp the ways
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