It’s monday morning and I was reviewing the world financial events for this week through Bloomberg & Reuters. For the week ahead, Central meetings likely to held in India, Chile, the Philippines, and Sweden. Government Bond auction in Spain and France an event to be watched out and US to focus on retail sales. The inflation no.’s for India is the key factor too:
Monday April 16:
India WPI (mar)
It is expected March WPI inflation at 6.7% yoy, essentially in line with consensus but lower than the 7.0% yoy in February on strong favorable base effects from last year. Primary articles inflation, which led the rise in February WPI and double-digit fuel inflation are expected to keep the headline reading from declining too low. The highlight is core WPI, which is expected to decline further to close to 5% yoy.
US Retail Sales (Mar)
It is forecasted that retail sales increased strongly in March, despite a decline in vehicle sales during the month. Forecast a rise of 0.6% mom, above consensus (0.4% mom). Chain-store sales results were solid and warm weather was probably still a modest positive.
Tuesday April 17:
India Central Bank Meeting: (RBI)
It is expected the Reserve Bank of India to cut repo rates by 25 bp in its Annual Monetary Policy Meeting, in line with consensus.RBI to remain hawkish, as the Reserve Bank of India mentions risks from suppressed inflation. It could be expected 125 bp of rate cuts in 2012.
Chile Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects the central bank to stay on hold.
US Housing Starts (Mar)
Housing starts likely rebounded in March after declining in February. Expected a rise of 5.0% mom, above consensus of 1.0%.
US Industrial Production (Mar) Expecting a reading of 0.3% mom after a flat reading in February.
Wednesday Apr 18
Malaysia CPI (Mar)
Expecting inflation to come in at 2.1 % yoy for March, in line with consensus. Previously, CPI inflation came in at 2.2% yoy.
Turkey Central Bank Meeting: Consensus expects the central bank to stay on hold.
Sweden Central Bank Meeting: Consensus sees the Riksbank on hold, before hiking rates in Q2 2013. there could be downside risk in the short run (from European sovereign tensions), the Riksbank will likely also remain concerned about the build-up of domestic household debt.
Thursday Apr 19
Philippines Central Bank Meeting: it’s expected that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to hold at 6.00% for the policy repo rate and 4.00% for the reverse repo rate, in line with consensus. Pressure from higher fuel prices has raised the hurdle for further rate cuts after 50 bp cuts so far since the last easing cycle ended in July 2009.
Spain and France Bond Auctions
US Initial Claims (Apr 19): Consensus is looking for a reading of 370k after a reading of 380k last week.
US Philadelphia Fed Survey (Apr) The Philadelphia Fed’s business activity index will provide an early indication of manufacturing sector momentum for April. We expect a slight decline to +10.0 from +12.5. Consensus expects +12.0.
Friday Apr 20
Germany IFO (Apr) Consensus expects a reading of 109.5, down slightly from 109.8 in March.