A spurious tail is the performance of a certain number of operators that is entirely caused by luck, what is called the “lucky fool” in Taleb (2001). Because of winner-take-all-effects (from globalization),spurious performance increases with timeand explodes under fat tails in alarming proportions. An operator starting today, no matter his skill level, and ability to predict prices, will be outcompeted by the spurious tail. He published a paper shows the effect of powerlaw distributions on such spurious tail.
Taleb’s maverick thoughts became more famous from the The Bed of Procrustes – Here are some of them that I could recall :
The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary.
To bankrupt a fool give him information.
Education makes the wise slightly wiser, but it makes the fool vastly more dangerous
The best revenge for a Liar is to convince him that you believe what he said.
The Opposite of success isn’t failure, it is name- dropping.
Karl Max a visionary figured out that you can control a slave much better by convincing him he is an employee.
The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fastest way to become poor is to socialize with the rich.
It seems the most unsuccessful person who gives the most advice, particularly for writing and financial matters.
Writing is an art of repeating oneself without any one noticing
Most people write to remember things; I write to forget
Journalists as reverse aphorists :
Taleb says “You need skills to get a BMW, skills plus luck to become a Warren buffet”
The journalists quoted: Warren Buffet has no skills”