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In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long term.” –Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Taleb’s contribution to the world of finance are two fascinating concepts — essays really — subsequently expanded into book length. The first is Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, which describes the tendency of investors to find patterns where none exist, and to attribute to skill that which might be better credited to luck. Continue reading

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