In financial markets, craziness creates opportunity. It affects only prices, not values. And one of the craziest afflictions I
know of is our faith in our ability to see the future. Indeed, there isn’t even an appropriate opposite to the word ‘foresight’ in the English language. So I’m going to make one up. And rather than build a portfolio based on the pretence we have foresight, let’s explore some ideas for building one that is robust to our fore-blindness.
Here are some things I think are true:
- developed economy
governments are insolvent