Too many research analysts, TV analysts and Exit polls are riding on the India’s biggest event of 2014. Every one knows this is an event driven market and all wants to cash in the euphoria of the bull run.
The Indian market swing in the last 2 sessions discounting the BJP win for the elections. This market period has been quoted as the Mother of bull markets.
I do not know how many portfolios is in green or red. Whenever there is a big swing in the market the investors start anticipating and the analyst start guessing the bottom points. Emerging economies Indian Rupee and the stock market is the famous example now.
Paul Farrell responded to Wharton School prof Jeremy Siegel’s most recent predictions for the Dow by year-end 2013,download who said: “My Dow 17,000 projection may turn out to be too timid.”
He channels William Sherden, author of “The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions.” Sherden decided to test the accuracy of leading forecasters over a multidecade period. His conclusion: Forecasters stink.
Farrell summarizes Sherden’s findings in 11 bullet points:
- Economists’ predictions are no better than guesses
- Government economists often worse than guesses
- Long-term accuracy is impossible
- Turning points cannot be predicted
- No specific forecasters are better than the rest of pack
- No forecaster was more expert with specific statistics
- No one ideological orientation was better
- Consensus forecasts do not improve accuracy
- Psychological bias distorts forecasters and their forecasts
- Increased sophistication does not improve accuracy
- No improvement over the years