Predicting the Bull Market

Generally I do not write or analyse on the market predictions. But one of the friend shared a msg on Nifty predictionsblog let’s try to analyse it.

Don’t confuse brains with a bull market….. How much Nifty can rise in current bull market….?

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria

  – Sir John Templeton 

India has first major Bull market when Sensex moved from 400 in 1989 to 4546 in April 1992 a Rally of almost 1100% in matter of 3 years which will be remembered for Liberalization and reforms by Manmohan Singh . After that we got the Harshad Mehta scam where Sensex tumbled from all time high of 4546 to 1980 low made in Apr 1993.  Next Major Bull market was seen from 2003 to 2008 where Sensex Rallied from 2900 to 21K and Nifty from 1000 to 6333 a run of almost 700 %.

From the highs of 1992 till 2003 Sensex did not did anything trading in the wide range in between we got the Asian Market crisis, Dot com bubble but overall Sensex remains in the range than the Big breakout came in 2003 and Sensex and Nifty saw a 7 fold rally till 2008.

So as per above analysis multi-year Bull runs which we saw in 1989-1992 and 2003-2008 are always followed by muti year of consolidation (1992-2003 and 2008-2014)where we see time and price correction.As shown in below chart Consolidation (1992-2003 )and Breakout and now again we saw a consolidation (2008-2014) and breakout.

So Nifty/Sensex after 6 years of consolidation saw a breakout in April 2014 , So how many legs the current bull run have, We have Rakesh Jhunjhunwala giving target of 1.3 Lakh on Nifty by 2030 but I will try to analyze whats in store for us in next 2 years which will help both traders and investors.

Between 2008 and 2014, the Nifty re-tested the 2008 high on two occasions in 2010 and 2013.Both these attempts lacked broader market participation as Mid caps and Small caps saw big under-performance during these period.  But after the thumbing mandate we got in May 2014 saw mid caps outperforming which shows participation on all ends.

Quotes from the friennd:

Monthly chart is showing a clear ascending triangle formation with breakout above 6335/21206 for Nifty and Sensex. So target as per ascending triangle comes 6335+(6335-2252) =1041821206+(21206 – 7697) = 34715

Quarterly chart also shown trend-line resistance coming in range of 10000/10500.

So on large time frame looks like we are still ready for more returns and traders/investor should use all dips if and when they come to buy quality stocks.

Please understand this is long-term view you will not see a straight line rise there will be many ups and down.In 2003-2008 Bull run we had 30%  correction in May 2006 and 16% in 2007 .

Disclaimer : Do not try to time the market .

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