BREXIT – The road ahead

Europe…..Britain left. Russia broke up. Yugoslavia broke up. Czechoslovakia broke up. The Catalans want Independence. The Scots want Independence. The Chechens want Independence. The Basques waimagent Independence. God knows what the Irish want. These are countries with population’s less than most Indian states. They still can’t stay together and we Indians have been living in comparative harmony for almost 70 years despite differences in religion, culture, language and food habits. India, truly is, an amazing country.

Moving ahead after some humour, what lies ahead for the markets, I am not going to do any forecasting, just try to analyse some of the facts:

It may take some time for the shock to work through the economic, financial and political systems in the U.K. and Europe. As a result, global stocks may fall further. No doubt this event was bigger than Lehman brothers, considering the political and economic impact, If someone says has the market factored the exit , well I am not in the position to provide my view on it  .

The biggest concern/ fear that I see from here is of contagion, as other countries calling for their own referendums on EU membership. This could put the European Central Bank in a difficult position to continue their quantitative-easing program of buying the bonds of countries that may choose to leave the Eurozone. It’s not hard to see France’s Marine Le Pen taking the same path as Britain, should she win the election in less than a year from now. A “Frexit” could be even bigger than Brexit in its impact on markets, with a European Central Bank that may be unable to effectively intervene.

Well a lot may happen apart from the above, I have not even written about Scotland the only area of UK that significantly wanted to be the part of EU.

For the Indians continuing doing SIP’s is the best thing 🙂


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