Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.
Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:
CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain
HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex Continue reading “Forecasting the Market – II”