Forecasting the Market – II

Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual blogbeta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.

To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.

Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:

CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain

HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex 

NONDETERMINISTIC: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen,

In their abilities and thinking styles they tend to be

ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED: Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected

INTELLIGENT AND KNOWLEDGEABLE, WITH A “NEED FOR COGNITION”: Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges

REFLECTIVE: Introspective and self-critical

NUMERATE: Comfortable with numbers

In their methods of forecasting they tend to be:

PRAGMATIC: Not wedded to any idea or agenda

ANALYTICAL: Capable of stepping back from the tip-of-your-nose perspective and considering other views

DRAGONFLY-EYED: Value diverse views and synthesize them into their own

PROBABILISTIC: Judge using many grades of maybe

THOUGHTFUL UPDATERS: When facts change, they change their minds

GOOD INTUITIVE PSYCHOLOGISTS: Aware of the value of checking thinking for cognitive and emotional biases

In their work ethic, they tend to have:

A GROWTH MINDSET: Believe it’s possible to get better

GRIT: Determined to keep at it however long it takes

These are rare qualities, I have taken the extract from the book – “Superforecasting – The Art and Science of prediction” written by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s