Market Forecasting and Convictions

Self-deception is costly when it comes to investing. So let’s consider some of the lies that a lot of us may be telling blogourselves and the impact they may have on our portfolios.

You know what your investment returns are. You would be surprised at how few people actually know what their returns are. Even fewer understand their performance relative to a benchmark.

Here are some hilarious thoughts when you say and what does it actually mean:
1) That’s overbought (I’m not long and think buyers are stupid)

2) That’s oversold (I’m long and think sellers are stupid)

3) It’s a stock picker’s market (I get paid to pick stocks)

4) Stay diversified (I wish I could get paid to pick stocks)

5) That’s priced in (I missed the move)

6) I’m cautiously optimistic (Things usually work out. But sometimes they don’t)

7) There’s still a lot of uncertainty (I’m under-performing)

8) I’m waiting for clarity (I’m under-invested and desperately need a pullback)

9) Stocks are fairly valued (No idea)

10) Returns will be lower going forward (My investors should expect lower returns going forward)

To conclude everybody lies — every day; every hour; awake; asleep; in his dreams; in his joy; in his mourning….


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