Here are some dashboard points that I expect after the clean up of the old currency what we can expect on the Indian economic scenario :
A huge amount of around 15-20 lakhs crore of black money would be identified
We will see a bump of 8 to 10% in deposit with banks
Out of the money identified 15 to 20 lakh would be withdrawn over a period of two to three months
Substantial amount of money around 2.5 to 3.5 lakh cr would still remain in system
There would be a wealth destruction of around 3-4 lakhs crores
30% of money will not reach back to RBI
Next 2 to 3 months property prices and land prices can drop till 30 to 35%
Since there is a surge of deposit huge demand for Govt bonds would be there Continue reading “Where is India headed ?”
- Change is Sudden
Everybody is concerned about the overnight action making high value currency invalid across India. Nobody saw it coming; or was prepared; or had even any idea of its happening.
But there is something else which we know will surely come, but are not sure when, where and how – that is death. And it will come even more stealthily than this!
We had 4 hours advance notice for this – but in death, there will not be 4 seconds. Are we prepared for the secrecy and suddenness in Death?
- Value can be Lost in a Second
We had Lakhs of Rupees in 500 and 1,000 denomination yesterday – but today they are just pieces of paper!
Similarly, all worldly gains – money, wealth, fame, power – not just high currency – will all be worthless for us a second after death.
Continue reading “Some Lessons from the currency invalidation in India”
Sharing an important Circular from RBI and GOI, Please do not panic and understand the motive behind this great initiative:
The Government and keeping in view the need to minimise inconvenience to the public, the following operational guidelines have been issued:-
- Old High Denomination Bank Notes may be deposited by individuals/persons into their bank accounts and/or exchanged in bank branches or Issue Offices of RBI till the close of business hours on 30thDecember, 2016.
- Old High Denomination Bank Notes of aggregate value of Rs.4,000/- only or below held by a person can be exchanged by him/her at any bank branch or Issue Office of Reserve Bank of India for any denomination of bank notes having legal tender character, provided a Requisition Slip as per format to be specified by RBI is presented with proof of identity and along with the Old High Denomination Bank Notes. Similar facilities will also be made available in Post Offices. Continue reading “Do not Panic if your Money is Legal”
Back from the long Diwali holidays, time to reboot on the markets, long breaks are always good to revive and get some thoughts from your near and dear ones.
On the way back from Bhopal to Mumbai, some fellow passengers were curious about the markets and the train was late as much as 6 hours. It was a holiday special train and passengers paid a premium to board the train compare to other routine trains, they expect the train to come on time as the fare is higher. I did exchange few tweets with the railways department for delayed train.
Getting back to the theory as the fellow stranger passengers did not have a good time with markets as well, most of them were trying to time the market. Continue reading “Rebooting from the Risk – Return and Disappointment theory”