Where is India headed ?

Here are some dashboard points that I expect after the clean up of  the old currency  what we can expect on the Indian economic scenario :

A huge amount of around 15-20 lakhs crore of black money would be identifiedblog

We will see a bump of 8 to 10% in deposit with banks

Out of the money identified 15 to 20 lakh would be withdrawn over a period of two to three months

Substantial amount of money around 2.5 to 3.5 lakh cr would still remain in system

There would be a wealth destruction of around 3-4 lakhs crores

30% of money will not reach back to RBI

Next 2 to 3 months property prices and land prices can drop till 30 to 35%

Since there is a surge of deposit huge demand for Govt bonds would be there

More and even deeper rate cuts are expected

Opportunity to build duration in the portfolio

GDP and capex would slow down

Trump would not be having a negative impact on Indian economy but Chinese economy would be impacted

The impacts on market with the action of Modi would be more(around 90%) rather than that of Trump wins’

 

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