Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual blogbeta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.

To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.

Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:

CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain

HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex  Continue reading

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