I love this topic as I always say we love to forecast things and we all are forecasters,
When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
Whenever the markets rise sharply the probability of forecasting to end the Bull Run increases sharply and vice versa in case of Bear markets.
Why people tend to forecast market so much? Don’t they enjoy the present?
Well those are behavioural questions and difficult to answer. But definitely people enjoy forecasting things.
Will the Sensex reach 30,000 or not is the question of the moment, and there are various views on it. Continue reading “Will you invest in this Market – Market Forecasting?”
Self-deception is costly when it comes to investing. So let’s consider some of the lies that a lot of us may be telling ourselves and the impact they may have on our portfolios.
You know what your investment returns are. You would be surprised at how few people actually know what their returns are. Even fewer understand their performance relative to a benchmark.
Here are some hilarious thoughts when you say and what does it actually mean:
1) That’s overbought (I’m not long and think buyers are stupid)
2) That’s oversold (I’m long and think sellers are stupid) Continue reading “Market Forecasting and Convictions”
I was going through some of the latest Economic Commentary done by Merrill Lynch some extract of rules I found them interesting to share across.
1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.
2. Never be a slave to the date – they are no substitute for astute Continue reading “Merrill Lynch’s Economic commentary”