Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.
Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:
CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain
HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex Continue reading “Forecasting the Market – II”
The endeavour below is to – explain a very complicated circular trading (round tripping algorithm) nonsense that became a crisis – in a simple way.
MARY is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin. She realises that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronise her bar – she will go broke.
To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.
She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).
Word gets around about Mary’s ‘drink now, pay later’ marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Mary’s bar. Continue reading “Greece Crisis in simplified terms”
For the better part of a decade now, the world has been hearing stories about financial woes in Greece in addition to growing tension between the Greeks and other European countries taking part in the Euro system. For those who aren’t particularly attached to the Euro or major European industries for purposes of investment, it’s been easy to gloss over these stories; from afar, it’s simple to shrug off the news and assume everything will work out.
But who would have really thought that this far into the apparent success of the single currency system in Europe, Greece might actually be on its way out? According to some off the latest reports regarding current debt management negotiations and Greek impact on the Euro and European stocks, a departure from the Euro has become a real possibility for Athens.
Following the latest breakdown in debt negotiations between the International Monetary Fund and Greek officials this past week, Reuters made note of “another setback in Greek debt talks took their toll on European markets.” The article goes on to mention that “Greek assets bore the brunt of the pain,” and yet as negotiations with the potentially defaulting nation continue to go poorly, there’s a growing sense among some that the Euro as a whole will continue to be held down. Continue reading “Greece & The Euro”