Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.
Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:
CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain
HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex Continue reading “Forecasting the Market – II”
Europe…..Britain left. Russia broke up. Yugoslavia broke up. Czechoslovakia broke up. The Catalans want Independence. The Scots want Independence. The Chechens want Independence. The Basques want Independence. God knows what the Irish want. These are countries with population’s less than most Indian states. They still can’t stay together and we Indians have been living in comparative harmony for almost 70 years despite differences in religion, culture, language and food habits. India, truly is, an amazing country.
Moving ahead after some humour, what lies ahead for the markets, I am not going to do any forecasting, just try to analyse some of the facts:
It may take some time for the shock to work through the economic, financial and political systems in the U.K. and Europe. As a result, global stocks may fall further. No doubt this event was bigger than Lehman brothers, considering the political and economic impact, If someone says has the market factored the exit , well I am not in the position to provide my view on it . Continue reading “BREXIT – The road ahead”
Ok, So the Greece just voted in a landslide to reject further austerity (Good for them). So nobody knows what’s going to happen next. There nothing like a financial crisis to get adrenaline pumping, Might be the chances of Grexit be higher now, but I would not dig in to detail. Would rather move away to the maverick author Nassim Nicolas Taleb who made the points for Bailouts and Prevailing culture in the financial domain
- The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “This is my last cigarette “holds true
- The difference between banks and Mafia: banks have better legal regulatory expertise, but Mafia understands the public opinion. Or you can say”Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank and he can rob the world”
Continue reading “Greece Bailout Yes or No”
The endeavour below is to – explain a very complicated circular trading (round tripping algorithm) nonsense that became a crisis – in a simple way.
MARY is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin. She realises that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronise her bar – she will go broke.
To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.
She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).
Word gets around about Mary’s ‘drink now, pay later’ marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Mary’s bar. Continue reading “Greece Crisis in simplified terms”
The problems of Greece is not new, long before the financial crisis hits the global economy in 2008-09, Greece was in trouble. The combination of structural economic weakness and high structural deficits were compounded by a culture where tax evasion and corruption are both widespread and, to a large extent, acceptable and Euro became the scapegoat. The Euro is a scapegoat. Hard currency is not inherently bad. The real problems are: Continue reading “Is Greece a failed state now”