Forecasting the Market – II

Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual blogbeta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.

To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.

Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:

CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain

HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex  Continue reading “Forecasting the Market – II”

Remember the Facebook IPO – the Losses that Morgan Stanley incurred on it

Monday Monday

Time and again I did post on the IPO of Facebook and then disclosed the paper on banning of the IPOs. Let’s disclose some conflicts of interest. The Facebook IPO and the underwriters’ price stabilizing activity on its first trading day, Friday May 18. And Fed researcher noted, that there was a whole lot of buying at the IPO price of $38, which was probably largely due to the underwriters and which kept the stock above $38 going into the weekend before Continue reading “Remember the Facebook IPO – the Losses that Morgan Stanley incurred on it”