Analyzing and reading the experts view on the current situation of Deutsche Bank to that of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Many of them are emphasizing and argue that 2008 is back.
I will argue that the current situation is the iconic milestone of the clear END of the 2008 crisis. Here is my argument:
What was the Lehman Crisis about? In September 2008, we were facing an under-regulated banking sector and fears of rising interest rates (due to presumed inflation generated by USD 140 oil prices).
What is the current Deutsche Moment about? In September 2016, we are facing an over-regulated banking sector (the US Department of Justice throwing an USD 14bn fine at Deutsche Bank) and fears of never rising quasi-zero (in Germany even negative) interest rates. Continue reading
Ok, So the Greece just voted in a landslide to reject further austerity (Good for them). So nobody knows what’s going to happen next. There nothing like a financial crisis to get adrenaline pumping, Might be the chances of Grexit be higher now, but I would not dig in to detail. Would rather move away to the maverick author Nassim Nicolas Taleb who made the points for Bailouts and Prevailing culture in the financial domain
- The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “This is my last cigarette “holds true
- The difference between banks and Mafia: banks have better legal regulatory expertise, but Mafia understands the public opinion. Or you can say”Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank and he can rob the world”
September 15 2008 was one of the most extraordinary days in global financial history.A simmering credit crisis exploded into a full-blown apocalypse in the global financial sector when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.
With assets of $639bn and a further $613bn of debts, it was the biggest corporate bankruptcy in the US. The collapse of Lehman had immediate repercussions, frightening financial markets around the world, but with hindsight its demise has come to embody the failure of investment banks to adequately assess risk and invest accordingly.
Market Performance (from the close before Lehman BK) – Silver +71%, Gold +61%, S&P +58% ( For S&P the dividend are not accounted for. Including dividend it will be close to 88%)
Here is a must watch documentary of 60 min : “The West is done, it’s over! We screwed it all up. Do you want your great-grandchildren speaking Chinese 🙂
Most investors are no doubt familiar with the standard disclaimer “Past performance is not indicative of future results.” This compliance truism tends to stay in the fine print, both on paper and in investors’ minds, when they make decisions on the basis of real-time market dynamics.
Even if investors purport to buy into the logic of the “random walk” argument about security prices, in practice they tend to extrapolate recent history into the future (termed recency bias in behavioural finance) when making portfolio decisions — for example, believing that if stock prices have gone up recently, they will continue on that upward trajectory. Continue reading
Europe finally has agreed on the terms of MiFID II, extending its regulatory reach into fixed income, FX, OTC trading and commodity speculation. Here are seven details you need to know as implementation begins.
We still have technical meetings to go through to finalize details, so the complete text is unlikely to be available until won or close to January 27, but here is what we understand so far:
1. HFT will be restricted through greater testing of algorithms, but there will be no 500 m/s rule.
- Final organizational requirements for investment firms engaged in algorithmic trading have been passed to ESMA Technical Guidelines for greater analysis concerning the risks potentially raised by technology-advanced trading practices. Continue reading