An intelligent investor was once asked what the market was going to do. He replied, “It will fluctuate”. This is the most important possible truth. We need to get deeply into our bones the sense that any market and the stock market, moves in cycle so that we will infallibly get wonderful bargains every few years and have a chance to sell again at ridiculously high prices a few year later.
Here is some observation how people at different age groups are reacting to the markets now:
People in their 20’s are logging back into their wealth front accounts to dial down their risk setting when they should be dialling up their regular contribution amounts.
People in their 30’s are trying to keep up with what’s going on, even though they are utterly bewildered every time an app on their phone Continue reading “Are you still predicting the market ?”
I love this topic as I always say we love to forecast things and we all are forecasters,
When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
Whenever the markets rise sharply the probability of forecasting to end the Bull Run increases sharply and vice versa in case of Bear markets.
Why people tend to forecast market so much? Don’t they enjoy the present?
Well those are behavioural questions and difficult to answer. But definitely people enjoy forecasting things.
Will the Sensex reach 30,000 or not is the question of the moment, and there are various views on it. Continue reading “Will you invest in this Market – Market Forecasting?”
Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.
Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:
CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain
HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex Continue reading “Forecasting the Market – II”