Back from the long Diwali holidays, time to reboot on the markets, long breaks are always good to revive and get some thoughts from your near and dear ones.
On the way back from Bhopal to Mumbai, some fellow passengers were curious about the markets and the train was late as much as 6 hours. It was a holiday special train and passengers paid a premium to board the train compare to other routine trains, they expect the train to come on time as the fare is higher. I did exchange few tweets with the railways department for delayed train.
Getting back to the theory as the fellow stranger passengers did not have a good time with markets as well, most of them were trying to time the market. Continue reading “Rebooting from the Risk – Return and Disappointment theory”
Self-deception is costly when it comes to investing. So let’s consider some of the lies that a lot of us may be telling ourselves and the impact they may have on our portfolios.
You know what your investment returns are. You would be surprised at how few people actually know what their returns are. Even fewer understand their performance relative to a benchmark.
Here are some hilarious thoughts when you say and what does it actually mean:
1) That’s overbought (I’m not long and think buyers are stupid)
2) That’s oversold (I’m long and think sellers are stupid) Continue reading “Market Forecasting and Convictions”
Extraordinary returns follow extraordinary discipline. Discipline in buying and selling, and maybe the most important one of all, holding. Developing the conviction to hold is something that I’ve learned over time. It didn’t come easy. The basis of this article is to give some insight on how to develop the conviction to hold your winners. It is very tempting to sell along the way, and it’s okay to take a little off the table, but the big money is made by holding.
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Many of us, myself included, look at stocks that have made big moves and think to ourselves, “If I would have only knew about that company and bought it back then.”But would you really have developed the conviction to hold during the run up? The problem is that to achieve a multi-bagger in the portfolio, you have to hold a multi-bagger. And if you want it to change your life, you need to hold a lot of it. Continue reading “Patience is Power – Market Convictions”
Very common statement from the market analysts these days for the Indian stock market. India Overvalued but the rally will continue. Although based on valuation metrics, Indian equities are now trading at a significant premium to stocks in other EM countries some analyst claim this too.
We have consistently outperformed the market! … Sensex is now overvalued.
“The stock market is overvalued.” “The stock market is undervalued.”
Which one of these statements is true? Well I don’t know. May be both
Thanks to quirks of the most popular way of measuring a stock’s valuation: the price/earnings ratio.
While no one disagrees about what the “P” is when calculating the ratio, there is no consensus on how to Continue reading “Are Markets Overvalued?”