Continuing with market forecasting – The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
To paraphrase Thomas Edison, superforecasting appears to be roughly 75% perspiration, 25% inspiration.
Here is a philosophic outlook, about superforecasters and they are rare breed:
CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain
HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex Continue reading “Forecasting the Market – II”
It’s a Lazy Sunday sharing some of the random thoughts, observation that will come to your mind if you are in the Corporate financial jungle, or may be your boss have shared with you..if not you would love to read them for once :-
- Drinking is bad, but feelings are worse.
- What most people would call the greatest night of their lives, I call just another Friday.
- I thought there’d be worse nicknames to have for a girlfriend, but she didn’t find “The Warden” funny at all.
- Some of the best moments in life are the ones you can’t tell anyone about.
- A Blackberry and a 6-figure pay check is the crutch that single chicks call a career. That facade crumbles at 30.
- Haircuts are the ultimate economic indicator. In bad times, it’s every 8 weeks. In good, it’s every 6. I go every 3 weeks. 🙂 Continue reading “Random Thoughts if you belong to Corporate World”
It’s been observe that people find investing as one of the difficult task. Either they end up depositing all their savings in fixed deposits, gold or they become the scape goat of ULIP (insurance).
Moving on to some quotes on the investing and financial markets that might change the perception of yours. There isn’t right and wrong, there is two sides to the coin, but rich dad exists on only one side of the coin, the business and investor.
Yes, there is some risk involved with investing, and it can be scary. But if you don’t take control of your cash and moves forward you, well those are famous ones from Rich dad -Poor dad. Continue reading “Why investing is difficult?”
Taken from the Big chill of 1983:
Michael: I don’t know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They’re more important than sex.
Sam: Ah, come on. Nothing’s more important than sex.
Michael: Oh yeah? Ever gone a week without a rationalization?
Self-deception is especially costly when it comes to investing. So let’s consider some of the lies that a lot of you may be telling yourselves and the impact they may have on your portfolios.
Starting with Nassim Taleb’s sardonic story about forecasting. As the tale goes, a trader listened to the firm’s chief economist provide a forecast about the markets and then lost bundle acting on it, getting him fired. The trader angrily asked his boss why he was fired rather than the economist, as the economist’s poor forecast led to the poor trade. The boss replied, “You idiot, I’m not firing you for losing money. I’m firing you for listening to the economist.”
Here is a different sort of “top ten” list of interrelated investment insights and recommendations – mistakes that are both common and deadly – for us to try to correct for 2015 and beyond :-
- We don’t prioritize properly in financial planning: Your savings rate is far more important than your rate of return in determining how bright your future is likely to be. However, we are far more likely to obsess over squeaking out a bit more performance out of our investments rather than thinking about ways to save more. Continue reading “Mistakes that an Investor keep on repeating”