I love this topic as I always say we love to forecast things and we all are forecasters,
When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
Whenever the markets rise sharply the probability of forecasting to end the Bull Run increases sharply and vice versa in case of Bear markets.
Why people tend to forecast market so much? Don’t they enjoy the present?
Well those are behavioural questions and difficult to answer. But definitely people enjoy forecasting things.
Will the Sensex reach 30,000 or not is the question of the moment, and there are various views on it. Continue reading “Will you invest in this Market – Market Forecasting?”
The last two post were on forecasting the markets, so I decided let me continue on forecasting. The Atlantic published a challenging article on the decision-making abilities of financial experts sometimes back, I like the arguments and the study outcomes are not surprising to me 😉
There are experts, and then there’s everybody else. In finance, experts have studied the subject and follow the markets closely, so you’d expect that they’d be superior at betting on the stock market as well as on other financial matters, right? Well, perhaps not so much. As the psychologist Philip Tetlock—who did a 20-year study on the subject—famously said:
Experts are poorer at predictions than dart-throwing monkeys. Study after study has shown that low-cost index funds—investments that track major financial market indices—outperform “actively managed” mutual funds. Continue reading “The Financial experts Good, Bad and Worse”
We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $1000 and go to Las Vegas.” This is such a profound statement from Paul Samuelson, who was the first American economist to win the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Predicting or forecasting the market is likes rains forecast by the met department. Continue reading “Market Forecasting”