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Tag Archive: market predictions


The last two post were on forecasting the markets, so I decided let me continue on forecasting. The Atlantic blogpublished a challenging article on the decision-making abilities of financial experts sometimes back, I like the arguments and the study outcomes are not surprising to me 😉

There are experts, and then there’s everybody else. In finance, experts have studied the subject and follow the markets closely, so you’d expect that they’d be superior at betting on the stock market as well as on other financial matters, right? Well, perhaps not so much. As the psychologist Philip Tetlock—who did a 20-year study on the subject—famously said:

Experts are poorer at predictions than dart-throwing monkeys. Study after study has shown that low-cost index funds—investments that track major financial market indices—outperform “actively managed” mutual funds. Continue reading

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Generally I do not write or analyse on the market predictions. But one of the friend shared a msg on Nifty predictionsblog let’s try to analyse it.

Don’t confuse brains with a bull market….. How much Nifty can rise in current bull market….?

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria

  – Sir John Templeton 

India has first major Bull market when Sensex moved from 400 in 1989 to 4546 in April 1992 a Rally of almost 1100% in matter of 3 years which will be remembered for Liberalization and reforms by Manmohan Singh . Continue reading

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