In one classic experiment conducted by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, pioneers in the field of prospect theory, subjects were given a hypothetical choice between a sure $3,000 gain versus an 80% chance of a $4,000 gain and a 20% chance of not getting anything.
The vast majority of people preferred the sure $3,000 gain, even though the other alternative had a higher expected gain (0.80 × $4,000 = $3,200).
Then they flipped the question around and gave subjects a choice between a certain loss of $3,000 versus an 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of not losing anything. In this case, the vast majority chose to gamble and take the 80% chance of a $4,000 loss, even though the expected loss would be $3,200. Continue reading “Let your Profits run and cut your Losses short”
In this world of uncertainty where life do not has guarantee, people aspire for guaranteed returns. The recent posts done on my blog pertains to are market’s overvalued and volatility .That how a financial television especially is built on the idea of using volatility, wherever it may be, to capture eyeballs
The Warren buffet latest (2015) letter to the Berkshire Hathway shareholders is a great – great read especially from the page 24 onwards. Here is the link Berkshire Hathway Letter
Some of the smartest blogger have shared their thoughts on the volatility & risk from the letter .
Josh Brown writes:-
The modus operandi of a lot of Street denizens is to present something as a problem for you so that they can sell you the solution. By putting the fear of volatility in front of you as though it’s a serious long-term risk, the door is then opened for all manner of high-cost, horrifically ineffective products or strategies. My partner Kris likes to say “the easiest way to sell someone a map is by first convincing them that they’re lost.” Continue reading “Guaranteed returns & Guarantee of life”
Zero Hedge is one of my favorite blog on the risk analysis and for the global events, the blog argues that we are living in the Golden Age of Central Bankers, and that wreaks havoc on the fundamental nature of market expectations data.
- The VIX (Volatility Index) is not a reliable measure of market complacency.
- The wisdom of crowds is non-existent.
- Fundamental risk/reward calculations for directional exposure to any security are problematic on anything other than a VERY long time horizon.
- I’d rather be reactive and right in my portfolio than proactive and wrong.
The Golden Age of the Central Banker is a time for survivors, not heroes. And that’s the real moral of this story.
Let’s dig deep to understand the most basic question in risk management. Continue reading “Risk Analysis – Central banks and Volatility”
Well, its bit old actually, but it is still good:
Safety is a product, not a process.
It is being said in the industrial accident context. I’ll let the Ranter explain! through his blog.
In general, effective safety measures are usually something you do, and scattering costly “devices” around an unchanged process is a classic failure mode. Not least because they might instil a false sense of safety and lead people to take risks… Continue reading “RISK MANAGEMENT”
Yesterday was going through a case on the art auction valuation under matters of pinion an article in Economist,where the UK
High court has passed the judgement against Sotheby’s the leading art auction house where Lord Coleridge claimed that the auction-house expert, Elizabeth Mitchell, was negligent when she gave an auction valuation of a treasured family heirloom. The historic gold chain of office had been in his family for generations, and the Coleridge’s (distant relatives of the poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge) believed it dated from the mid-16th century. Lord Coleridge had expected that the estimate for his rare Tudor jewel would be £500,000 or more. Ms Mitchell, however, proposed that it was from the late 17th century, and gave it an estimate of £25,000 to £35,000. This, Lord Coleridge claimed, had cost him a good deal of money. He sued for £415,000, the case is interesting and bit difficult to understand Caveat Vendor
Here are some thoughts on the why Art as an alternative Investment has become so popular and its bit complicate to understand the market, the auction houses and the pricing, Continue reading “ART TREATED AS AN ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT”