We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $1000 and go to Las Vegas.” This is such a profound statement from Paul Samuelson, who was the first American economist to win the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Predicting or forecasting the market is likes rains forecast by the met department. Continue reading “Market Forecasting”
Europe…..Britain left. Russia broke up. Yugoslavia broke up. Czechoslovakia broke up. The Catalans want Independence. The Scots want Independence. The Chechens want Independence. The Basques want Independence. God knows what the Irish want. These are countries with population’s less than most Indian states. They still can’t stay together and we Indians have been living in comparative harmony for almost 70 years despite differences in religion, culture, language and food habits. India, truly is, an amazing country.
Moving ahead after some humour, what lies ahead for the markets, I am not going to do any forecasting, just try to analyse some of the facts:
It may take some time for the shock to work through the economic, financial and political systems in the U.K. and Europe. As a result, global stocks may fall further. No doubt this event was bigger than Lehman brothers, considering the political and economic impact, If someone says has the market factored the exit , well I am not in the position to provide my view on it . Continue reading “BREXIT – The road ahead”